Global Markets | Thu Jun 25, 2026

Analysis

• A hot-but-not-hot-enough inflation print, plus Micron, lit a global risk rebound. US PCE topped 4.0% in May — a three-year high — yet the core read was benign enough to ease the two-hike panic and rally 2-year Treasuries; Micron's blowout did the rest, sending the KOSPI up over 5%, the Nikkei to a record close, and US and European AI names higher in one synchronized turn.
• The same dollar strength is draining every non-yielding haven at once, not rotating between them. A Warsh-anchored hawkish hold keeps the dollar firm and is unwinding the debasement trade in a single move — gold sits near $4,000, silver keeps sliding, and Bitcoin retested $58,000 (its lowest since September 2024) with over $1 billion in liquidations — one rate force repricing bullion and crypto together rather than rotating between them.
• Hormuz just reminded everyone the Iran premium isn't dead — right as the banks called surplus. Oil hit a post-war low on the truce, then a ship strike and supertankers turning back sent Brent back above $75, even as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs cut second-half targets toward a projected glut — leaving energy positioned for surplus into a chokepoint that keeps reopening and re-closing.
• The Street is chasing AI's dip and hedging it in the same breath, and Asia's leg runs on leverage. Micron quieted the doubters while Bank of America told clients to add protection into Q3 and UBS called AI hardware near a cycle top (still overweight); the regional rally is positioning, not fundamentals — ₩47 trillion of foreign Korea selling against a domestic chase, with China margin debt past ¥3 trillion.

Potential Alpha:

• [AI_CAPEX] Sub-3W — Micron's "constrained beyond 2027" memory call re-anchors the long-memory expression through MU, SMH, and Korea's SK Hynix or the leveraged KORU, with a still-heavy Taiwan tape and foreign TSMC selling marking where the unwind isn't finished.
• RATESSub-3W — The Warsh-hold dollar that keeps draining non-yielding havens leaves the debasement-trade short live through MSTR and gold-miner equities (GDX) until a cooler core print breaks the two-hike narrative.
• IRANLonger — Hormuz's pattern of reopening then re-closing keeps a two-sided energy setup live; with Goldman modeling a ~$75 Brent surplus, US energy equities (XLE) carry the premium each chokepoint incident re-prices.

Catalysts — Next 48-72H: